Recently, Apple unveiled its new toy called the iPad. I was disappointed to learn that like the iPhone and iPod Touch, it will not support Flash. This got me thinking about the future of Adobe’s Flash Player.
I wrote an article last month about Flash CS5 having the ability to compile iPhone apps from ActionScript3 code, but now I’m wondering if that’s really the best solution. Flash is currently the best form of media for browser based gaming when it comes to reaching the masses, but if things don’t change, it will find itself reminiscing over its glory days before long.
HTML5, paired with JavaScript, is quickly becoming a force to be reckoned with. Its biggest advantage is the ability to render graphics with the GPU (Graphic Processing Unit). Its disadvantage is that users must have a browser that supports HTML5. IE8 and FF2 are among the browsers that don’t support it. In a world where 10.2% of internet users are still on IE6, it’s not likely that HTML5 will be the standard anytime soon. In fact, HTML4 isn’t even fully implemented yet.
Flash currently renders graphics through CPU (Central Processing Unit) for maximum compatibility across computers and operating systems which, unfortunately, puts quite a load on the processor. The next release of Flash Player will have GPU support (v10.1), but that will require users to update the drivers to their graphics cards as well. All I can do is hope that it gives Flash enough power to compete in the years to come…
I love AS3, but if Adobe doesn’t do something, then I’ll have no choice but to move to something else. In the end, the fate of Flash will depend greatly on how Adobe plays its cards.
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Oooh, I sure hope Flash sticks around. Its usability and ubiquity alone are reasons to be concerned, not to mention the learning curve for designers and developers alike as they move forward.
I’m sure that Adobe will come up with some kind of solution, they’ve always been ahead of the curve for the last 15 years.
Nothing to worry about at all. Flash developers already know that it will be 2-3 years before HTML 5 is ever finalized. And in 2-3 years from now Flash will have had the opportunity for even greater innovation. Looking ahead, HTML 5 will be too slow to ever be eventful. As everyone knows the big problem is getting people to upgrade to the newest browser. Many people are still using IE 6! A browser upgrade is a much harder choir for them, than to upgrade to the lastest Flash player. The 98% and 85% saturation rates for Flash 9 and 10 respectively already prove that to be true.
It is conservatively estimated that up to 10% of all smartphones: Blackberry, Droid, Nexus, Pre, etc. will have a 10.1+ Flash player running on them before year end. By the end of 2011 up to 50% of all smartphones will have a Flash player… that’s a lot of mobile devices running Flash!
The iPhone will only be getting “simulated” Flash from CS5 compiles going through its app store. By the time 2011 arrives the iPhone and the iPad will be about the only mobile devices NOT running Flash.
Keep on investing time in Flash, cuzz it’s future is so bright ya gotta wear shades!
@RazorX – All Good points.
Though, I’m a PC guy. While searching for the cause behind the iPad not supporting flash, I found a lot of complaints about how poorly flash apps run on Macs. So I got my hands on a Macbook and tried out a few games I created in the past. Sure enough, the processor capped out and the frame rate jumped up and down like a roller-coaster. It seems like a problem that Adobe should have solved by now.
I suppose that creating simple flash animations will still be quicker and easier than jumping into javascript and html5, but the performance of large scale flash apps will need to improve greatly.
@Craig – I’m sure the good people at Adobe are working hard to stay ahead of the game. Like RazorX said, they have lots of time to come up with a solution.
Who needs Flash if you can get the same functionality with a free downloadable app? Regardless of Flash Player’s market penetration it has too many serious issues. Good to see Apple leading the way in passing it by. And for those who think Apple is too controlling on this issue, how about Adobe’s control over proprietary Flash technology? I’ll enjoy seeing Flash recede into the background in the next several years.
The problem with Flash is that you need a Flash client, and there’s only one company in the world that produces such a client: Adobe.
So far, Adobe has been unable or unwilling to produce a flash client for 64 bit operating systems. To get around this, Microsoft runs IE in 32 bit mode in its 64 bit operating systems. Apple had to completely reconfigure the way Safari handles “plugins” in order to allow 64 bit Safari to run the 32 bit Flash plugin.
Now, there is not just Mac OS X and Windows, but LInux, Android, WebOS, Windows Mobile 7, Chrome OS, Bada, Symbian, and RIM. Can Adobe really provide the needed clients for all of those operating systems. Can they keep all of those clients patched and updated? If Adobe introduces new Flash features, can they really update all of those clients?
One way around this and one way to fight off the challenge of Silverlight would be to open the Flash specification. This doesn’t mean open sourcing the Flash plugin itself, but publishing the specs of Flash SWF files, so that others could write their own SWF file plugins.
Adobe has taken this route before when their business was threatened. They opened the specs for Type 1 PostScript fonts when TrueType became a competitor. They produced the specs for PDF files in order to combat the use of Microsoft Word files as the standard document format. They could easily open the SWF format, and allow it to be included as part of the HTML5 standard. Such a move would blunt Silverlight and Apple’s arguments against Flash.
The fact Adobe didn’t probably means that even Adobe cannot figure out the SWF format itself or is leery of specifying the format least it means freezing Flash’s feature set. (My dealings with Adobe makes me suspect the former reason).
And that’s why Apple wants Flash to die. Apple is in the business producing web enabled products and if a Flash client becomes a must have in order to browse the web, Apple’s whole business plan can be derailed by Adobe simply not producing a Flash client for some new Apple device. It means Apple has to work and cajole Adobe into producing a new Flash client with each new device. That’s not a position any company wants to be in.
@David – All good points, though I very much doubt that Adobe would refuse to produce a flash client for any new web-enabled device. The goal is to put flash on anything and everything that has an internet connection. Anything less would be bad for business. The Open Screen Project is proof of this. Why else would they go to such lengths to publish actionscript3 code as an iPhone app?
@David – Excellent analysis. Having dealt with Flash’s development team myself some years back I think you’re spot on with the notion that even Adobe cannot figure out the SWF format itself.